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Welp, we enter the week leading up to Blizzcon 2013, and everybody in the twitterverse is all excite. There has been a lot of speculation about what we might see at this fabled gathering this year. Allow me to contribute my hysterical speculations.

What we know

  • 5.4.0 is the final content patch for Mists. What we’re looking at is pretty much as far as this goes for this expansion – it’s the ICC of Pandaria.  Which more or less leaves us to our own devices until the next expansion, which has not been announced at this time. Yes, there is a 5.4.1, for which you have already received a patch (though it doesn’t do much yet). That’s a far cry from more real content though.
  • Ergo if there are any "content" patches beyond 5.4.0, we can probably expect more time-killing activities ala land-of-the-endless-dailies or Timeless Isle (this is more opinion than fact).
  • We also have this roadmap, posted in 2007 and allegedly from 2003 which has proven to be extremely accurate in general terms. You can see all the pieces here, though sometimes they arrive in different order than originally planned. For example, Pandaria was originally going to be a part of a far larger expansion, from the looks of it, which would have included bits of the Cata expansion as well.  I guess what I’m saying here is that looking here for direction is not entirely out of line, based on past experience, but it requires a heavy amount of interpretation.
  • If one goes by that roadmap, we have one major piece not yet addressed – The Burning Legion.

 

Now we Speculate

What follows is a series of thoughts based on what we have seen out in the wider internets. I’m not claiming to know what’s going to happen, but I do reserve the right to crow just a little for each item I get right. :)

There will be an expansion announced

That’s probably obvious to most, but it should be noted that Blizz has not stated that there will be. Reasonably, the announcement will take place on the first day.  What we see is "World of Warcraft: What’s Next" and World of Warcraft: The Adventure Continues" when we look at the Blizzcon schedule.

What we do NOT see is availability of the expansion for playtesting, as we had with MoP.  I do NOT recall if that was actually part of the schedule last time.  It would be helpful to be able to remember.

Given all the above, however, one thing we do know is that we’re done with MoP.  If they don’t announce here, it’ll be at some smaller trade show later on, and I don’t think they’re going to do that to their flagship product.

Ergo, now is the time.

The expansion will involve the Burning Legion.

We don’t have a lot to go on here except for that fabled road map.  Considering its accuracy, I’m inclined to look to it for inspiration.

There is also the fact that many, many of the in-game and out-of-game lore pieces have been very strongly focused on the Legion and things around it.  The adventures of Anduin, for example, as well as Wrathion.  We KNOW the Legion is going to be a huge part of WoW at some point, it’s a confrontation that is being teased in lore and legend and prophesy. Between them and the Old Gods, we’re looking at 80% of what threatens Azeroth. Maybe more.

The expansion will be called "Warlords of Draenor"

I admit this may be premature, in that the trademark was applied for outside the US and only a week before the Con.  However, it does fit in with the story arc we’ve been uncovering.

An alternate, The Dark Below, does have some bearing on the Old Gods thread, but if I remember correctly, that was discredited not long after it appeared in trademark sites.

One should also remember that the same trademark sites have been used for the Warlords title, and take both with a grain of salt.

The expansion will involve a new, "lost" continent of Draenor.

One should remember that Outland was not Draenor, but simply a part of it, one continent on a larger world. Given Blizz’s penchant for pulling entire lost continents out of their electronic butts, doing so on a world about which we know SO LITTLE makes a certain amount of sense.

Also, discovery of this continent leads us to …

Alleria and Turalyon will return

turalalleriaTheory: they found their way onto the lost continent and were either detained or could not find the way back.  After many years of research and hard work, they’ve opened a portal that leads back to the dormant one in Zangarmarsh.  Or maybe Blizz invents some new sort of Twisted Nether transport vehicle similar to a cross between an airship and a sailboat  (The AD&D Astral plane was full of such vehicles, and they were super cool).  After many years and with the assistance of a stranded colony of Ethereals, they have returned in style.

It should be noted that these two have been teased for at least two expansions in the "hints and tips" pane of the loading screen – which is one reason I leave that feature turned on.

EtherealThe Ethereals are a new player race

I’m not sure if they’ll be a new player race similar to the Pandas or not (bi-factional) or if they’ll belong to one faction and some other race fill in for the other.  If the latter, I have no idea who it would be.

It’s all weaksauce regardless. I am basing this on the merest whiff of a hint dropped here and there.

But if they are a new player race, I bet the starting zone is associated with where Alleria and Turalyon were stranded.

Outland will not get a revamp

There was a lot of joyful / hysterical speculation in Twitter especially that Outland would at last get its remodel and quest streamlining.  I doubt this myself because (a) the Cata remodel of Azeroth was not a cracking success and (b) they hate going back to old stuff.

There was the Twitter sub-thread that Outland would be revamped and be NEW content for the new expansion.  I doubt this because then they’d have to fill in the 60-70 leveling gap from bits of Azeroth and/or Northrend, and I doubt they want to do something so complicated.   HOWEVER, I do consider this to be more likely than revamping it "just because". 

The new level cap will be 100

The most blatant clue about this is that several BoA items drop from Garrosh that "require level 90 to 100", which is an odd thing for the tooltip to say if the next expansion is good for only five levels, I think you’d agree.

The less obvious clues are back in that roadmap.  It’s fairly clear from looking at it that bits of Wrath, Cata, and MoP were meant to come together as one large expansion.  For example, Worgen were possibly supposed to be part of the same expansion as Pandarens. And, thus, the remaining pieces do seem to come together as a whole expansion, rather than a mini-expansion such as what we’ve been getting.

There are no indications of any new class

That’s not entirely true.  Consider the Pandaren.  Outside of the roadmap doc, the only reference to Pandaren in game terms was as a practical joke or two. Blizz insisted that there could be no possible way that they’d ever make it into the game as a serious race.

What class has also been likewise the source of jokes and amusement?  Why, the Bard, of course!  So there’s that.

More likely, though, I think we might see another attempt at a Hero Class, this time with less problems than the DK rollout.  Possible candidates: that have been hinted at here and there: Archdruid (from Druid, possibly from Stormrage himself), Archmage (from Mage, possibly from Jaina), Necromancer (Warlock, possibly related to the Green Fire quest line), Ranger (from Hunter, possibly via Alleria), and Vindicator (from Paladin, possibly related to Turalyon)

Since this is such an empty bucket, anything that fills it will be no particular surprise.

Release will be in the Holiday timeframe, 2014

I know, someone once asked me, "surely you can’t expect people to wait 14 months for an expansion?"  This’ll be closer to 12, which is a reasonable cycle but one that is largely devoid of content, nonetheless.

Expect beta testing to be over the summer, with the final polish going on around August.

Will they announce that this is the schedule. Well, they never have before, so I’m doubtful.

YOU FACE JARAXXUS

Crap. Not again.

Seriously, we need the Dance Studio for this one. Obviously.

Anything else?

Probably. I could hope to see things like ink-derived armor dye, but there is no indication. We’ll probably see at least one more trade skill streamlined as Blacksmithing has. But most people will focus on the Big Picture, and who can blame them?

Bottom line is, I have a suspicion about where things will go, but no hard facts to back it up.  Clues are not facts.

I do, however, think this particular story line would be very, very cool.

I’ll be watching this as much as anyone else.  Excite!

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Hi, how ya been? It’s been weeks, I know! But it’s for a really good reasnon … see, Grimmtooth Actual done went and got himself a job, and it’s been keeping him as busy as a Goblin at a bank vault explosion site. It’s been pretty crazy, is what I’m saying. So time to think, compose, write, and otherwise participate in all things bloggy has been in short supply.  There’s also the fact that with my WoW time somewhat reduced, I’ve had a bit less inspiration to write anything, anyway.

SPOILERS FROM HERE ON OUT, HIGGLEY PIGGLEY WITHOUT CONSIDERATION FOR ORDER OR PROPRIETY.

FAIRLY WARNED BE YE, SAY I.

Read the rest of this entry »

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The Godmother mused on anonymity in the game space, and Matty riffed on it some more vis-à-vis our virtual personas.  You should go read them.  Go ahead. I’ll be here.  I’m just a digital amalgam of personality traits and pixels.

… or am I?

An underlying theme of this sort of discussion is that games like WoW affords one anonymity, and they feel emboldened to therefore do many terrible things to people around them.  In short, griefers.

This is well summarized in Gabriel’s Greater Internet Fuckwad Theory, captured so well on Penny Arcade.

Gabriels Greater Internet Fuckwad Theory

I want to focus on that so-called "normal person" for a moment.

What is it about The Internets and a venue that creates this "fuckwad" shell around that person?

If you answered "nothing", you win the prize.

One is never truly anonymous on the internets. One is merely hoping not to be discovered.

In other words, that "normal" person is in fact a total fuckwad, and he just found the means to express himself in a manner that he felt he could get away with.

None of us is truly anonymous.  We can change our names, address, even our appearance, but we are still who we are. If we act up on the internets, well, that’s us.  Pure and simple.

You are everything you do, and that includes the time you were a total douchebag to the loser in the starting zone on the Azuremyst realm.

You may be the greatest raider of all time. You may lead your guild in an exemplary manner and your guildies may gather once a month to sing songs of praise about you. You may write blog posts that make Glenn Greenwald weep with envy. 

But that time you were a dick to a baby space goat … that’s with you for life.

Nobody else may know, but you will.

And it’s not your virtual presentation that gets sullied with this.  No, it’s the real, elemental, essential you that has to carry this around.

The same applies to those griefers out there.

They go day to day being "normal" people, but at night when they think nobody knows them, they’re being total assholes. And that, too, is "normal" for them.

This talk of the duality of the online and offline personality sometimes gets carried away.  At the end of the day, the online personality is actually the offline person, wearing a pixel suit.  I’m not a max-level dwarven hunter.  I’m a middle-aged out of work software tester that also plays several other characters, some of them female, on the same game system.  None of them is me, and yet all of them are within me, come from me, and are expressions of the essential me.

This isn’t a matter of people "becoming" dickwads.  This is a matter of people letting their inner dickwad – the part of them that they were too timid or sensible to let real-life people see – out to play, to be a sadistic, brutish bully.  To be a rat bastard.  To be an illiterate schmuck.

We don’t act this way in real life because we will be held accountable.  Ideas of an improved accountability system should be explored and implemented if we want to see this game improved as a social entity.

[KNOCK AT DOOR]

/Bob opens door.

Man at door: "Are you PunchyBooBoo?"

Bob: "Um …"

MaD: "PunchyBooBoo the warrior?"

BoB: "Um, well, …"

MaD: "PuchyBooBoo the Orc warrior on Medivh realm?"

BoB: "Yes, that’s m –"

/Man at Door punches Bob in the face

MaD: "THAT’S FOR MAKING MY LITTLE SISTER CRY, YOU SADISTIC BASTARD."

 

[A FEW HOURS LATER]

[KNOCK AT DOOR]

/Bob opens door

Another Man at door: Are you PunchyBooBoo the Orc Warrior?

Bob: MOM, IT’S FOR YOU!

Wouldn’t that be grand.

Any time you think you can get away with something awful is a test of your character.  Maybe it’s a twenty dollar bill that dropped from a man’s coat as he rushed past you … you can keep it, he’ll never know.  You found an exploit in the game that lets you use engineer’s grenades as construction devices. Somebody accidentally lists a 10,000 gp staff for 10 gp. You find a lone flagged low-level Hordie in your territory.

This is your time to shine; do the right thing, and all you’ll probably get from it is a sense of accomplishment.  But karmic debt has been repaid, if you believe in such things.

Everything we do in the "real" world and all the "virtual" worlds are just expressions of our true selves. There is no true anonymity.  Just opportunities to temporarily avoid the effects of your actions. Eventually, you must pay the toll.

Exact change, please.

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(Fifty quatloos to the person that knows where that title came from – no cheating with Google!)

It is with a heavy heart we report the retirement of Warcraft Hunters Union and Frostheim’s time at the blogging wheel.

You could kind of see it coming; entries there were light at best.  There was no MoP Hunter Guides for many months after the expansion went live. It was getting a bit dusty and tatty around the edges. 

But there was a robust and active culture of fellow hunters there that just couldn’t be beat. 

He and I didn’t always agree on things.  But, you can’t really engage as a writer without, as he says, having an opinion.  He’s no BRK, and thus sometimes his opinions were delivered with a bit less subtlety and a lot more noise.  Then again, nobody ever WILL be BRK, just as there will never be another Frostheim.

I’m not sure where our next premier site of Hunter Goodness will be.  What I do know is that the Hunter class is just too awesome not to have one before too long.

I’ll see you there when that happens, and we might even bump into ol’ Frosty.

Stoke me a clipper.

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By now, if you’re dedicated enough to read even this blog, you’ve seen this announcement from Activision / Blizzard. To wit: Activision / Blizzard has bought its financial independence from its corporate masters, Vivendi Universal.

I’d like to point out a few things.

First of all, note that it’s still Activision / Blizzard.  Not just Blizz.  Blizz is still joined to Activision via a cash-transporting umbilical cord.  The pernicious influence of Activision and Bobby Kotick is still very much an active part of Blizzard’s future.  Vivendi didn’t once enter into things, but Activision, well, that’s a very active threat to Blizzard’s moral well-being, and has been.  I have no idea if they’ve managed to hold the line against the darkness over there at Pasadena, but here’s hoping they can continue, if so.

Second of all: I don’t care who they are, if they were valuated at EIGHT BEEEELYUN dollars and have over THREE BEEELYUN in cash reserves after that, they are not an "indie" company, any more than EA is.  "Independent" and "indie" really mean two different things, and the people calling the A/B monstrosity "indie" should be hauled through the internet into 4chan by their lower lip and left there to suffer. Independent is fine. Indie is not.

Finally, this should send chills through anyone’s heart:

"The transactions announced today will allow us to take advantage of attractive financing markets while still retaining more than $3 billion cash on hand to preserve financial stability."

– Bobby Kotick

"Attractive financing markets" sounds suspiciously like "we’re going to invest our capital in things other than producing games."  There’s an accountant in there somewhere urging little Bobby to put cash on derivatives or something. 

Well, I hope not.  But anything that is other than a direct investment in the game studios’ health is a misuse of funds, in my opinion.


"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

– Mark Twain, who attributed to Benjamin Disraeli

You may have also noticed that in the same conference, they quietly released the subscriber numbers for 2013Q2.  Aaaand the numbers are down again, down to 7.7 subs, which haven’t been that low since before BC launched..

Sub Numbers

These are based off of Blizzard’s reported subscription numbers, and represent roughly the paying player base – though the numbers leading up to MoP are probably artificially inflated by the annual pass numbers – though they seem to be interested in good-faith estimates, so maybe they’re based off of active logins or something.

But the interesting thing is, as you can see, the numbers form a bit of a bell-curve formation. If you fit a trend line to this, you end up somewhere between 2015 and 2017 for the day that the final WoW player logs out of Azeroth, never to return.  This is of course not a real date, because this would never happen – Blizz would pull the plug at 100 players, obviously, and they’d all log off at once.  Or something like that.

The variation on the curve depends on whether you take the whole data set, or start at 2010Q4 when WoW was peaked. One is an overall dataset, one is just a map of the decreasing trend.  Take your pick, but I tend to favor the latter because it takes less of old and obsolete data into account.  The fact that it yields the more favorable 2017 date has nothing to do with it.

Something else jumps out if you cook the data in a different manner.

Gains and Losses

This is a chart explicitly showing gains and losses, rather than just bulk numbers.  Here are things about this chart.

  • Up through the start of Wrath, the rate of growth was flat; that is to say, the numbers kept growing, but at a more or less steady rate – no glitches that weren’t understood.
  • One of those understood glitches was the start of BC, when we got what is now considered the traditional "expansion bump".  We see this throughout the game’s history.
  • Sub data for most of Wrath is missing1.  In that gap there IS one quarter reported, and it had zero growth on the previous quarter (11.5 mil).
  • From the start of Cataclysm, it’s been more or less a steady down trend, though I caution that the biggest down spikes are outnumbered by lesser down spikes (or one upward). 
  • But the data do suggest a pretty profound downslope, nonetheless.

It’s also impossible to say when Blizz started to sweat the losses.  The huge gaps in the Wrath period reveal nothing.  Maybe they saw a down trend at that point and decided to start compensating by nerfing up the game in Cata. Or maybe they thought of nerfing up the game as part of a grand strategy that started to be realized in Cata.

Either way, it’s pretty obvious where the decline really starts to gather momentum.  So what are the possible reasons for this?  Here are some possibilities.

  1. Players are getting bored and just come back for the new content. This seems like it would be a more gentle downturn, with sharper uptake and more gentle dropoff in between expansion lines. And we do see some of this, but it’s not the overarching pattern.
  2. Players don’t like the changes to the game’s difficulty. i.e. "Azeroth has been nerfed!"
  3. Players hate casuals.  This goes with the above.  Sure, I’m part of the quested-in-the-snow-uphill-both-ways crowd at times, but I don’t begrudge others the less difficult climb.  I don’t need others to suffer to feel better about myself.  But the haters, the ones that hate "casuals", well, if I hadn’t seen it myself I would say it was impossible for people like that to exist, but they do.  WoW has its own virtual Civil Rights movement, in which the haters are played by Archie Bunker and the "casuals" are played by, well, actual people. More on this anon.
  4. Other games have come online that are clearly as good or better. I don’t know about better, but many have come online that might be as good in many ways.  I’ve personally experienced Eve and Neverwinter and feel both hold up well.  Where they don’t hold up is the people, in that the people I like to hang with aren’t in those games.  I’m such a camp follower.  And STWOR came out right in the middle of that big decline, so it’s not so much a "trigger".
  5. Free to play games! This too is a big one, and probably one of the biggest.  Back when WoW came out, you could pay money to Sony or to Blizzard to get your fantasy on; these days, fantasy MMORPGs are all over the place, and free-to-play. Neverwinter, Rift, Aion, GW2, and more are out there just waiting for you to download a free client or buy one and then play for free.  Even STOWR made the transition (not very well, I hear.). More on this in a minute, as well.
  6. WoW is old and crufty.  Well, that’s about as subjective as it gets.  I’ve played other games that have "better" graphics and I can’t really say there’s a lot going on there.  I will say the armor and weapon models are, a lot of times, a lot more interesting to look at. The toons – player and NPC – however often hit that "uncanny valley" of near-realism that just turns off the brain.  WoW makes no pretenses about how it chose to depict its characters, and it’s paid off again and again.  Just … hurry up with those player model improvements, guys?  Thanks.

So there’s two things I want to focus on.

The Nerfing of Azeroth

Over time, Blizzard has done a lot to nerf things in the game.  I’ve generally felt it was a bad idea.

This harks to the recent Blog Azeroth shared topic of "is leveling too easy?". A lot of people confused "too easy" with "easier".  Can we agree that the two aren’t equivalent?  Yes? Good. Let’s proceed.

If you accept that "easier" and "too easy" aren’t the same thing, then you won’t feel locked into asserting that leveling in Azeroth is NOT "too easy" but it IS "easier".  I can think of dozens of examples.

  • Mor’ladim is a joke compared to his past self, who terrorized the Raven Hill cemetery with an iron fist.  You always had to work your questing around his whereabouts or suffer the consequences. And don’t give me any guff about "it’s subjective".  He was an elite.
  • Stitches‘ epic journey from Raven Hill to Darkshire put terror into the hearts of travelers. Many’s the time I stopped to help someone else bring him down.  Also many’s the time I hid to one side of the road until he passed. You needed a group; now the game supplies you with one.
  • That horrendous run from Menethil to Ironforge so you could take the tram to Stormwind if you were an Night Elf or Draenai.
  • That horrendous run to Booty Bay.  Back then there wasn’t a Rebel Camp with a gryphon. And, as I found out on my first outing, even the grass was deadly.
  • Even Princess was painful.
  • You didn’t just waltz into the area outside of an instance; it was full of elites.  People forget how terrifying it was to go into Deadmines the first time to do that quest for the miner’s guild.

These were all painful rites of passage that those of us that leveled up in early WoW remember and understand.  They are all gone the way of the dodo, either because of new flight points, or new boats, or nerfed zones, or even nerfed NPCs. There are hundreds more examples like this, things that are absolutely, indisputably easier than they were prior to Cata. Anyone that says it’s just my experience in the game making it SEEM that way isn’t thinking it all the way through. There were real challenges that simply aren’t around anymore.

The question of whether it is too easy is another matter because it addresses Blizzard’s actual decision to make the leveling game go easier at lower levels.  Starting as far back as Wrath, maybe sooner, they started taking the starch out of expansion zones as we got near the end of the expansion. A journey that might take you all the way to Storm Peaks at the start of Wrath, for example, might end somewhere in Sholazar – if you got that far, even!  Faiella managed to get to 80 in Dragonblight2.

Did they go too far?  There is a fine line between challenge and chore; did they cross it? That’s at the heart and soul of this issue, I think.

When they redesigned Azeroth for Cataclysm, many zones were reworked completely – quests redone, levels changed, elites nerfed, and so forth.  And yet people felt like they were on a conveyor belt; you couldn’t start quests at hub "B" until you finished all the ones at "A" and were directed to "B".

My feelings are that they went too far, and did a poor job on the redesign of Azeroth, and that this legacy has carried forth into other aspects of the game, including MoP.

They’re *trying* to understand user feedback, but I think they’re letting their game designer’s instincts be subverted by management’s insistence that they "make the game more accessible", and it’s backfiring because people don’t want to be spoon-fed stuff.  After all, if you just want to look at the assets3, there are tools that let you do that without actually playing!

GC and Flying Mounts

Here’s an example of a designer going against what he knows is right; flying mounts take you out of the world and make you an observer of, rather than a part of, that world. When he speaks elsewhere of the importance of "exploration", he’s referring not to the act of flying all over the place to clear areas of the map – that’s "mapping" – but being down in the world’s nooks and crannies and discovering things about it.

Granted you can’t currently fly in a zone until you hit max level. But even that’s an arbitrary rule imposed to overcome the hinkyness of being able to just fly all over the place. It was a bad idea in BC, it was a hakneyed idea in Wrath, and it was a hideous idea in Cata, so now that we’re in MoP, it’s pretty much a given that you’re going to get it one way or another.

When we played one of the old Gold Box or Black Box series, exploration – the peering into corners, the poking at things and the pulling of levers4 were integral parts of the games. This is part of what made them fun.  Games without a few dead ends and red herrings were generally received with a gigantic yawn.

Blizzard game designers know this, but in an attempt to make the game "more accessible", some of this aura of mystery and magic may have been lost.

I think that if they plan to turn things around, they may have to address this. Put back some of the danger. Make a few things not pan out exactly the way the user wants. Require a little bit of effort in some (non-critical) places. Give people a reason to want to explore places like Winterspring, which is otherwise pretty useless since nobody ever sees it.

Answering the Threat

The one-two punch of new and prettier games, along with the F2P model, are another concern, and one which I think Blizz is dealing with.

Improvements to the gaming assets – character models, scenery, and so forth – have been taking places incrementally since Vanilla. But to many, that’s not good enough. They look at the character models presented in Neverwinter, for example, and complain that "all they have to do" is add some polygons.

But overall, I don’t think anything major will happen in WoW concerning the game engine. They’re working hard on "Titan" for the next big thing, but since it’s been set back, don’t look there for help.

For good or ill, we’re going to have to make do with incremental improvements in our game assets until WoW is sunsetted5.

The other threat is the F2P model.

Early on, F2P pretty much meant "free to play but don’t expect much in the way of updates".  I encountered F2P first in Anarchy Online, which is still going strong on that model – well, as strong as an out of date game can go strong. 

The advantages of F2P is that the barrier to entry is pretty low. All you need is a game client and an internet connection.  In some cases you have to pay for the client, but that’s a one-time expenditure that few would argue with.  Others will even give you the client for free. Some have turned that around and give you the client but charge you to play – we won’t talk about them for now, they’re small and okay with that.

How does a F2P game keep the servers running?  Well, there are a few ways, such as ads in-game (I first saw this in AO), and, and … well, there’s the "cash shop".

The "cash shop" is usually an external web site that you go to to purchase items to use in-game. In most cases you buy currency, then use that currency in-game, such as "Zen" in Neverwinter.  For the most part you can only purchase cosmetic and non-game-changing items, though in some very poorly implemented instances, that’s not necessarily true.

So what have we seen implemented recently? A cash shop.

I know dozens of bloggers and opinionators have said that Blizzard would never go F2P.  I have never heard anyone from Blizzard say that. 

WoW is Blizzard’s "cash cow".  For those that have never heard of such a thing, a "cash cow" is something that’s not really top of the line, but keeps bringing in money in a reliable stream.  So you keep "milking" it until it runs dry.  For example, at one place that Grimmtooth Actual worked, he worked on a lot of bleeding edge server systems, but over in a dark corner was a guy named "Dave" that worked on some pretty archaic looking stuff.  He explained, while it was far from state of the art, it was being used by thousands of banks across the world, and any time one broke down, they needed a replacement.  So he was the guy that farmed our cash cow while we went and burned off that money with our splashy R&D.

So WoW’s kinda like that right now.  And Blizz wants to keep that cash cow on the farm for as long as possible. With today’s numbers, that’s over 100 million bucks a month of solid income.  At TWO million players it’s 30 million a month, so even that can’t be sneezed at – would it actually cost that much to keep the servers up?

Unfortunately, that’s where I run out of steam, sort of.  I have no idea of what kind of numbers a big F2P title6 brings in. I don’t even know how to guess.  SWTOR claims that shifting to F2P "doubled" its income, but given its draconian implementation, let’s hope for better if WoW ever goes that route.

At the moment I think it’s likely they will, especially since the wait for "Titan" is probably going to be well past 2015, and possibly even 2017.

The question becomes, then: will I play an F2P WoW?

It’s going to depend on the implementation.  A Neverwinter-like implementation MIGHT work, assuming the restrictions aren’t too annoying.  One like SWTOR would see me drop out in a hurry, however.

At the moment we can only hope for the best.


  1. I’m guessing that Blizz thinks of reporting sub numbers in the same way it thinks of Blizzcon – if too busy, just skip it. []
  2. The plural of data is not anecdote, of course, so take that for what you will. []
  3. "Asset" in this context is the artwork, character models, sounds, music, and anything else even remotely "arty" used by the game itself. []
  4. Wait, no, not THAT one!!! []
  5. It’s a word, now. []
  6. That doesn’t suck. []

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I love it when bloggers post search terms that brought people to their website, and express awe / incredulity / outrage / amusement at the outlandish terms that often bring people to them.

But what of the spammers?  Nobody loves them, and yet they submit such masterful examples of the language – whatever it might be.

So, to be different, let’s share.

 

I do not even know the way I ended up here, however I believed this put up was once great.

Yes, our heyday is long past, and now we’re wallowing in mediocrity.

 

I do not recognize who you are but definitely you’re going to a famous blogger if you aren’t already. Cheers!

I once almost met BRK in real life, this is true.  Perhaps there is another famous blogger I will go to someday. Ratters, you up for a double date?

 

This write-up very pressured me to check out and do so!

That write-up pressured me to check out as well.

 

Your writing style has been amazed me.

Again, clearly we’re past our prime.  All but called has-beens!

 

You recognize therefore significantly with regards to this topic, made me in my view imagine it from numerous various angles.

I am imagining several angles as well, trying to parse this one.

 

Your individual stuffs excellent. At all times handle it up!

If you don’t handle it up, you won’t get gas.

 

I am sending it to some pals ans also sharing in delicious. And obviously, thank you to your sweat!

My sweat says "your welcome".  My sweat is trolling.


I’ve added a rotating wall of spam to the blog. Don’t tell Grimm, let’s see how long it takes him to notice!

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Something said at Be MOP reminded me of somewhere else that I had read of a hat-based business model.

So this probably happened at Blizz:

Note: this webcomic is by the same team that does Penny Arcade, plus one, which may turn some people off.  So, avoid if you are ethically inclined to do so.

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So, as posted on the EU community website, Cosmetic helms are now for sale in the cash shop Blizzard Store. And if you’re into gaudy, they’re not bad.

First of all: 15 US dollars1 is not a microtransaction. I don’t care what your favorite omnibus WoW website says, I don’t care what your favorite MMO forum site says.  The cost of a month’s game time is not a microtransaction. So don’t call it that, and we’ll get along fine.2

Next item: will it affect the game at all?  I can’t really see how, other than consuming precious frame rate.  Seriously, what would a 25-man raid look like with these on everyone?  Will a new Alliance battleground strat involve wearing these and lagging the Horde out?  Considering that it’s gotten zero beta time, these are actually kinda relevant questions. But I’m SURE they’ve gotten EXTENSIVE testing in-house3.

Item the third: when will this hit the US?  Days? Hours? Before this post goes up4Update:  I found out at 2 PM (two hours after publish) that they’re now available in the US.

Item the fourth: what next?  Will we see matching robes, shoulders, cloaks? And sidebar: will the WoW punditry also insist on calling those other items "microtransactions" if they cost 15 bucks5?

The big one: how long until we see pay-to-win items?  And does this indeed signal the final death rattle of WoW6?

that escalated quickly

Oops, sorry, accidentally plugged in to a forum.

The personal one: I’d almost buy the Firelord helm for Flora if she was into gaudy baubles. But in general none of this stuff speaks to my nature.  I seriously doubt that they’ll ever introduce a mog set that says "I work for a living" rather than "I’d like to think that I raid stuff you can’t even imagine."

The thoughtful one: It’s not just this stuff.  So much WoW raiding tier and its predecessor gear looks so hideous to me.  It’s covered with horns, and glitter, and flanges, and glitter, and orbs, and glitter, and ropey things, and glitter, and then they add glitter. SOME of the old vanilla tier stuff is okay7 but for the most part, Blizz is in love with its art department, and its art department all apparently majored in "Ming the Merciless’ Court Trappings".

You thought I was joking

But the thing is, they wouldn’t keep getting more ridiculous with every tier if it weren’t for the users wanting, or at least encouraging it. Those of us that want a more functional approach to awesomeness are not as vocal or as profitable.

I am very much of the opinion that awesomeness is not a function of frills and special effects.  The most iconic weapons are often very much, shall we say, to the point.

Anduril, Flame of the West

Rather than …

I blame Cloud

Maybe Ming wasn’t at fault after all. :)

If you can’t please everyone, the best you can do is give them choices, and that’s where mogging came in in the first place. You may recall my own mogging preferences are somewhat more functional than what my armor actually looks like8. And there are others that go the other way – well, I can certainly see the attraction of some Ulduar and Icecrown gear.

The Cheap One: What I would love to see with this sort of throwaway mog fodder is for it to (also) be sold for in-game currency of some sort, especially near the end of an expansion when people have piles of tokens and nothing to blow them on.  It would be a great JP dump, or Greater Tokens, or Halfhill Tokens, or what have you.

An even better approach would be to (a) make the items purchasable for a new special token type, (b) make it so you could buy that token in the cash shop (e.g.Neverwinter Zen), and (3) then also make that token purchasable for varying amounts of other in-game tokens, such as JP, Darkmoon tokens, etc.  That way, if one particular faction grind was "your thang", then you could, oh, I dunno, enjoy yourself while playing a game.

Because here’s the bottom line for me: they could make the perfect Hunter garb of all time available, and I’d not buy it for cash, not ever. I’m paying that much a month already.  I’m not even sure I’d pay for it if it was F2P.   Virtual items are pretty much gone as soon as you stop playing the game.  Game time, for all its ephemeral nature, gives you a month’s worth of enjoyment, whereas a hat isn’t even usable unless you pay more money.

But I might grind for it.

The Final One: The Godmother over at Alt:ernative had an interesting thought (or a dozen) about the cash shop9, one which was the sale of armor dyes.  I do want armor dyes.  I especially want one like the one in Diablo III that makes your shoulder pieces go away. But I categorically do not want them to be part of the cash shop.  Special colors? Possible.  In general?  Not.  It might be close to a deal-breaker for me, a last sign of cynical money-grubbing from a company that swore up and down that Activision wouldn’t do that to it.  I can only swallow so much hypocrisy, and that would probably mark the high water10 line.

Doing so would also eliminate one of the potential fun elements in-game: making of dyes.  I personally think this would be a great product for Scribes to make11 since they already have all sorts of dyes in the bank.  I think it would be great if they managed to exploit ALL of the herbs from Peacebloom to Golden Lotus to make different armor dyes.  They could just keep adding different shades of dye as new herbs came into being.  Heck, Ghost Mushrooms would be perfect for making armor invisible!12

I kind of doubt that will happen, though. I could be wrong, but they seem to be pushing down hard on the crafting game, and it’s starting to look like there is either a paradigm shift about to happen, or they’re starting to dismantle crafting as an mainstream part of the game. Certainly, it has problems.

It’ll be interesting to see where this goes.  At least the potential cash mounts will give us more people to admire as they preen on the bank steps and RP walk around Stormwind.

swaggah


Or something.


  1. That’s 12 Euro on this date. []
  2. We are straying dangerously into pet peeve territory, yes? []
  3. Kaff kaff /points at Theramore []
  4. Looks like: "no". []
  5. My money is on "yes". []
  6. I’m out of sarcasm tags, so use your "imagination". []
  7. Though that Rogue helm that looks like a respirator mask is just stupid. []
  8. I mean, if I was wearing my tier gear, you wouldn’t be able to see my head, even with the helm hidden! []
  9. She’s on a roll, folks. []
  10. Well, it looks like water from a distance. []
  11. I know, I know, just throw more money at them. []
  12. If they do this, seriously, I want a quarter for every game they sell. []

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When I get ranty, I tend to pound out around 2000-3000 words of pure snark and outrage, then spend several days tweaking and adjusting and, yes, most definitely, deleting. Because even though a good rant is a thing of beauty, my rants tend to lean in a hurtful direction initially, and I have to go back and trim out the potentially offensive stuff (well, if it’s not deserved …).

I mention this not to emphasize the fact that I have trollish tendencies, but to illustrate why, so many times, these sort of things get posted so late in the rant cycle. In fact, I’d say a good 60% or more never get posted at all, simply because I can’t de-toxify them fast enough to keep them relevant.

As it turns out, yesterday’s rant came in just under the wire, though I had no idea at the time that that would be the case.  As a rant, it stands on its own, but as a meaningful comment on the current state of the Hunter, it’s already obsolete.

Late in the night last night, Lore posted a few changes to the class that directly address concerns in the post I lined in MMO-C.

Regarding Stampede: We’re happy with the damage it’s currently putting out in PvP. For PvE, we’re planning to buff its damage pretty heavily, so it becomes a substantially more potent DPS cooldown. We don’t want to give it any more utility than it has now, for reasons we’ve explained at length already.

So this emphasizes what GC was saying about the intended purpose of Stampede1 in the first place – it’s intended as a DPS cooldown, not a utility cooldown, and thus they’re upping the damage to make it “worth your while”  My opinion, of course, is that any insta-cast ability that bring even a sliver of additional damage is worthwhile anyway. But more is always welcome.

Readiness is still under heavy discussion, and we haven’t made a final decision on what we’re going to do with it in 5.4. At the moment, we’re leaning towards just removing the ability entirely and giving the affected abilities shorter cooldowns or charges to compensate. If we end up taking that route, we will buff Hunter damage (most likely across the board, not just specific abilities), but as I mentioned, we’re still discussing.

I’m good with removing it, as it reduces the clutter of my startup anyway, and it never worked across the board for all abilities in a consistent way (e.g. Stampede). However, adding “charges” to abilities looks fraught with possibilities, mostly negative. There’s the potential for bugs that don’t get caught on the PTR2, and there’s the potential for complicating an already complicated rotation.

Demonology warlocks, for example,  will already know one of these pitfalls with Hand of Gul’dan; it has two charges, both available initially, and both with separate cooldown timers. Do you put both down immediately?3  Do you stagger them, and if so, how much? And so forth.

Ponder-worthy as we move forward.

Murder of Crows vs Blink strike is also still under heavy discussion. Our goal (with all talents) is that active abilities used properly will outperform passive ones. We haven’t decided yet what adjustments we’ll make to achieve that in 5.4.

Generally speaking, an explicit action when compared to a passive ability usually involves some sort of cast time, which is where a passive becomes so attractive for classes with very crowded rotations. In this case, there is no cast time involved, so the passive is actually less attractive if it doesn’t bring damage commensurate with the active ability.  I think here they need to shoot for parity rather than supremacy.

I also like the phrase, “talents used properly.”  That has to be a dig at someone – who, we may never know.

Scatter/Silencing Shot: We don’t consider interrupts to be mandatory in PvE.4

Thank you.

Now, to clarify, what I am pretty sure Lore means here is that they don’t consider interrupts to be mandatory for hunters.  Anyone that’s raided anything at all knows that interrupts of some sort are absolutely, positively, without any doubt, mandatory for the raid.

If a Hunter would rather not take the Glyph of Scattered Thoughts, there are plenty of other players in the raid who could take on the responsibility.

Thank you.

We like Silencing Shot as a Marksman perk overall, but we’re still discussing things. We may end up making a baseline Interrupting Shot that gets upgraded to Silencing Shot if you spec Marksman.

In fact, this has already shown up on the PTR – it’s called Counter Shot.  Currently an NPC ability, but available to a PTR Hunter near you starting immediately.

Speaking of spec differences, we agree that Hunter rotations feel cooler when your signature shots do a lot more damage than other shots, and we’ll discuss that some more. That’s part of the reasoning behind the Arcane Shot changes – our hope is that saving up more Focus for a bigger hit will feel better than firing off smaller shots more regularly.

This seems strangely disconnected from my experience as a Hunter, in that I rarely need to “save up” focus for anything, and I rarely lack focus to use my signature shot, thanks to appropriate use of Cobra Shot to keep focus above a certain point5.

Besides, reducing the cost of Arcane Shot seems to be counter to encouraging the preferential use of OTHER abilities.  Unless they mean that by reducing the cost here, they’re making focus available for other shots so that they get used more often.  Again, I hardly ever delay the cast of my signature ability over focus costs, so I’m not sure where this is coming from.

What I WILL say is that I feel like “Arcane Shot” is a bizarre ability for Hunters, period, now that we don’t use mana.

As to overall Hunter performance and utility, we don’t think the issues are with the Hunter class specifically. Instead, we think that certain other classes are overperforming (in both) at the moment. Fixing those outliers will, in turn, make a good Hunter more attractive for their raid spot. You may have seen some (but not all) changes along those lines on the PTR already.

OH JUST PUT A “KICK ME” SIGN ON OUR BACKS.

Realize that every nerf from now on out will be blamed on Hunters.


  1. Tooltip reflects current 5.3 damage. []
  2. Always happens. []
  3. They stack. []
  4. The second response after Lore’s post immediately disagreed with him on this. []
  5. 40 for Kill Command, for example. []

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I know Hydra gets around, but this is a bit more than most people.

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